One thing to clarify first is that while Niemann's FIDE rating was frozen at 2465 for much of 2020 from the lack of in-person chess and nipped up just a bit at year's end, he was improving all that time. Thus the length of his spurt thru the July 2022 FIDE rating list should be reckoned as 2.25 years, not 1.5 years as several have done.
It would be good to reference Frederic Friedel's comparison https://en.chessbase.com/post/tracking-a-player-s-progress And as GM Mihail Marin pointed out on Sasha Starr's chess show, if you go back further you can find Levon Aronian making a comparable spurt at an even later age. His rating chart at https://ratings.fide.com/profile/13300474 goes back to April 2003 (2606), but the individual calculations go back to his being in teh low 2500s running up to July 2001.
It would be great if you could set a common starting point (say 2450 Elo) and then compare the progress in Elo per game. Do you think you could make that possible? Thanks
At the risk of being repetitive what is your take on the unique average centipawn loss pattern and more specifically variance identified by Rafael Vleit compared to many other players when they climbed from 2500-2700?
That is the 800 pound gorilla in the room that everyone seems to ignore. The same methodology was used on a group of players and Hans was very distinct, it simply stayed flat during this period instead of going down.
As mentioned this was not an exercise in curve fitting.
Hi Nate, one question I have is if the comparisson between Niemann's rating and his own online rating (in the period where it is proved that he cheated) would show any difference. I don't know if he cheated enough, to a point where it affected his online rating, but if that is the case his OTB rating shouldn't have grown at the same rate, unless he also cheated OTB, right?
One thing to clarify first is that while Niemann's FIDE rating was frozen at 2465 for much of 2020 from the lack of in-person chess and nipped up just a bit at year's end, he was improving all that time. Thus the length of his spurt thru the July 2022 FIDE rating list should be reckoned as 2.25 years, not 1.5 years as several have done.
It would be good to reference Frederic Friedel's comparison https://en.chessbase.com/post/tracking-a-player-s-progress And as GM Mihail Marin pointed out on Sasha Starr's chess show, if you go back further you can find Levon Aronian making a comparable spurt at an even later age. His rating chart at https://ratings.fide.com/profile/13300474 goes back to April 2003 (2606), but the individual calculations go back to his being in teh low 2500s running up to July 2001.
I just want to say that I see the title of this post and I appreciate it.
The interactive dashboard is awesome. Great work!
It would be great if you could set a common starting point (say 2450 Elo) and then compare the progress in Elo per game. Do you think you could make that possible? Thanks
At the risk of being repetitive what is your take on the unique average centipawn loss pattern and more specifically variance identified by Rafael Vleit compared to many other players when they climbed from 2500-2700?
That is the 800 pound gorilla in the room that everyone seems to ignore. The same methodology was used on a group of players and Hans was very distinct, it simply stayed flat during this period instead of going down.
As mentioned this was not an exercise in curve fitting.
Hi Nate, one question I have is if the comparisson between Niemann's rating and his own online rating (in the period where it is proved that he cheated) would show any difference. I don't know if he cheated enough, to a point where it affected his online rating, but if that is the case his OTB rating shouldn't have grown at the same rate, unless he also cheated OTB, right?
Maybe, but there's also a fair bit of variance with tournaments. You can easily have a good or bad run of results.
The cheating in 100 games documented by chess.com in that report was mostly blitz actually, not rapid or full length games.
I see that Alireza also progress from 2500 to 2700 in 20 months.